Welp, it's all kicking off this week in AI!

lemgandi

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Madeleine Morris

@cstross from your lips to god’s ear

Jack William Bell

If it is happening this way, as a slow pullout of the smart money? I think the economic shock may be somewhat more muted than I'd previously feared.

Given the geopolitical and geoeconomic stresses right now a combination of run on the stock market and run on the dollar could bring about a 1929 level crash. And I think the current prices of precious metals shows there are a number of big players who fear exactly that might happen.

But should the bubble deflate more slowly? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Charlie Stross

@adamrice Exactly! How come you spotted it while all the blue chip funds didn't notice?

Uilebheist

@cstross I suspect not: there's no limit to human stupidity.

Seán Fenian

@cstross@wandering.shop Meanwhile Mozilla promised a one-step 'AI kill switch' in Firefox 148, and Vivaldi's CEO said "We've learned that frankly, people hate AI."

Steve Downey

@cstross But simultaneously the debt market is selling off bonds from SaaS companies on the panic that AI will replace them.

Two crashes on opposite sides of the same bet.

yay

Bruno Nicoletti

@cstross @adamrice Fear of missing out on the upswing. Most investors are not driven by any rational analysis but by two instincts, greed and fear. Looks like we are in the middle of the flip from one mode to the other.

Dan Sugalski

@Sdowney @cstross Every time anyone talks about the invisible hand of the market, or the wisdom of the markets, I just... point them at what the actual market does and laugh.

Jim Jones

@cstross Oof. That Microsoft dip is not pretty.

Charlie Stross

@GreatBigTable Palantir are down a similar amount!

Jim Jones

@cstross You hate to see it. Really.

cubeos

@cstross Microsoft Azure Income grew. by 39% year over year. It just grew 2% less than some people expected.

Dianne Hackborn

@cstross

"The longtime chief also criticized a lack of discipline in OpenAI’s business strategy"

Meaning they wouldn't be spending enough of that money on Nvidia's GPUs?

cliffordheath

@johnboy @Sdowney @cstross It's almost like both sides provide things that won't be needed when everyone is suddenly reduced to subsistence farming

S. Lott

@cstross What’s A16Z going to throw money at next? Have they started burning piles of money in worship of some other Big New Thing? Until the A16Z rocket fuel dries up, I think we’re stuck watching this mess.

James

@cstross

I asked ChatGPT:
Bottom line:
Yes, in the last 48 hours there are clear signs of stress across AI-linked stocks, rising skepticism, and valuation readjustment — which feels bubble-ish. But no, there’s not yet decisive evidence that the entire AI boom is bursting. It’s more like a market correction and repricing, with risk shifting from hype toward real earnings and competition.

If you want, I can break this down by specific companies, sectors (chips vs. software vs. services), or what this might mean for investing or the broader economy.

Bubble-ish….like ChatGPT is a 45 yo guy from Brooklyn.

And then it requested access to my microphone.

Maybe the day will come when it doesn’t ask.

the esoteric programmer

@cstross nah, it's probably not over, at least not yet

HTPC NZ

@cstross think it is just going to normalise along what it is always about... Existing advertising corps will run the bullshit generators baked into their honeypots - search, social media etc. Others who foolishly tried to incorporate it into their products without really having this reach already will scale down. Masses will by default increase the use of BS generators as it will be at the core of their tech use.

Licho

@cstross
1. The classic game of chicken
2. Echo chamber of yes men
3. They have the insider knowledge when the dump will happen.

That's my experience from the crypto world. That's how it usually happens. They will be the ones to scream "buy the dip, the upside is still unlimited" while emptying their bags on the retail investors.

@adamrice