NATO is over now.
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NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
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Maybe. But the US has been so central to the structure of NATO from the beginning (which has been controversial) that it’s a little difficult to imagine the disentangling.
@CptSuperlative OTOH, this is probably the best time to put in the work for that.
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Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
@OneInterestingFact @CptSuperlative @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
You could build something around France. They have an independent nuclear deterrent and I believe their arms industry isn't integrated with US. The most challenging part would be an integrated military command structure. The EU has the CSDP which could be expanded fairly quickly.
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Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
@OneInterestingFact
Disagree.
- The USA has insisted that its generals run NATO.
- Some US arms may do. That capability is recent, with the possible exception of the UK nuclear deterrent. *Iran* is still flying F-4s and F-14s, IIRC.
- Dassault, SAAB, MBB... long list. The USA has monetised NATO to sell weapons, but that's not the same.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
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@OneInterestingFact
Disagree.
- The USA has insisted that its generals run NATO.
- Some US arms may do. That capability is recent, with the possible exception of the UK nuclear deterrent. *Iran* is still flying F-4s and F-14s, IIRC.
- Dassault, SAAB, MBB... long list. The USA has monetised NATO to sell weapons, but that's not the same.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
@SoftwareTheron @CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
There's a number of arms manufacturers that aren't directly owned by US companies but how many can operate without US components?
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@CptSuperlative
I do understand your disgust and frustration. I felt and still feel the same about Brexit, which has the same sort of population-conned-by-great-power-covert-backing feel to it and is a gigantic shot in the foot.@CptSuperlative
BTW, my strong suspicion is that Brexit was aimed at the UK specifically to remove a nuclear-weapons-capable state from the EU. -
@SoftwareTheron @CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
There's a number of arms manufacturers that aren't directly owned by US companies but how many can operate without US components?
@OneInterestingFact
The term you're looking for is "chinese copy". (Yeah I know, very 1960s "Asiatic horde", but "unlicensed" doesn't evoke the historical parallels.)
One of the interesting(!) things which is probably going to develop from this is the collapse of the international patent system. Fun times.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
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@OneInterestingFact
The term you're looking for is "chinese copy". (Yeah I know, very 1960s "Asiatic horde", but "unlicensed" doesn't evoke the historical parallels.)
One of the interesting(!) things which is probably going to develop from this is the collapse of the international patent system. Fun times.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
@SoftwareTheron @CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
I'm not sure I was.
Yes, the whole of the post WW2 rules based order is under threat.
In time those companies can find alternatives. We still have to deal with the *meantime* and from where I sit on Airstrip One there's little evidence that "our" political leaders have begun to think about how to disengage.
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@CptSuperlative @madengineering I would say that NATO as we know it is over, but the suggested "replacement alliance" is NATO.
Bluntly, POTUS Trump has absolutely zero interest in USA membership in NATO, nor any subset of NATO. Nor any replacement for a subset of NATO.
So it's not like there is some internal power struggle where Trump is trying to carve off some "coalition of the willing" or anything like that. No, he simply does not understand the concept of an alliance at all.
This is
I’m not sure I agree. Disagreement is one thing but having to prepare for invasion by an “ally” is a bit more extreme. Plus, Europe sans US is more of an independent institutional unit now than at any other time in history - one with the institutional memory and understanding of such an alliance.
But, I suppose, my main point is that I’m not trying to prescribe as much as I’m hoping to describe.
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I’m not sure I agree. Disagreement is one thing but having to prepare for invasion by an “ally” is a bit more extreme. Plus, Europe sans US is more of an independent institutional unit now than at any other time in history - one with the institutional memory and understanding of such an alliance.
But, I suppose, my main point is that I’m not trying to prescribe as much as I’m hoping to describe.
@CptSuperlative @madengineering As bad as this Greenland thing is, I'm still going to say the long standing ongoing Greece-Turkey tensions are worse for NATO unity. NATO has had to face down Turkish invasion plans, and that's a tension point that's not going to go away if there's some change in Turkish and/or Greek leadership.
My judgement assumes that this Greenland thing doesn't turn into WWIII, of course, and Europeans and Canadians make Trump chicken out.
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@OneInterestingFact @CptSuperlative @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
You could build something around France. They have an independent nuclear deterrent and I believe their arms industry isn't integrated with US. The most challenging part would be an integrated military command structure. The EU has the CSDP which could be expanded fairly quickly.
@caoilte @OneInterestingFact @CptSuperlative
yeah, the EU needs to band together like never before, or it will be torn apartRussia will invade and the US (Trump) is going to refuse to get involved unless it becomes a US commonwealth or something as nonsensical
it needs to become independent of US big tech, software and hardware, just for starters
it needs an army, a nuclear deterrent, Godzilla, something to make it a pain in the ass for these dictatorships to try to control directly or indirectly
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@thomas_klopf @CptSuperlative it isn’t #trump the democrats need to overcome. It’s “ugly Americans” and #fascist #truebelievers that now are the majority of the USA population. It is our culture that defines us, not the miscreants leading us.
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NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
@CptSuperlative@toot.cat i agree with you that NATO is dead, but you seem to have a high level of faith in the ability of european democracies to adapt to the changing situation all things being equal, fascism is on the rise in europe as much as anywhere else, i think there would need to be a massive political realignment, not just on the issue of nato, but against trans national corporations, in defense of commons etc.
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@CptSuperlative @madengineering
And Mexico, and Brazil, the list goes on. Basically a coalition of the sane.
Da Silva and Sheinbaum are going to need extra protection after what happened to Maduro.
And throw out Hungary. It would be cool to have a NATO where membership is contingent on some metric of functioning democracy.
@Phosphenes @CptSuperlative @madengineering Brazil? The country whose leader gladly visited Putin in May last year? No thanks.
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@Phosphenes @CptSuperlative @madengineering Brazil? The country whose leader gladly visited Putin in May last year? No thanks.
@tml @CptSuperlative @madengineering
Oh I didn't realize that, just looked it up.
It's hard to keep up:
Trump loves Putin
Bolsonaro hates Da Silva
Trump loves Bolsonaro
(Trump hates Da Silva?)
Da Silva loves PutinThe alliances are crazy. 🤪
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@tbn97 @CptSuperlative Given that Canada has borders with Denmark (Greenland) and France (there's a Canadian lighthouse only about 8 miles from the airport in St-Pierre), then Europe and Canada make natural fellows
@bellinghman @tbn97 @CptSuperlative Canada and Denmark even have a land border these days. That little island they both claimed, and which their navies took turns raising a flag and leaving a bottle of akvavit or whisky on, has now been split between them with a border down the middle.
