@juergen_hubert And you are among the few enlightened who don't fall for it. Got it.

Any way to falsify that hypothesis?

@juergen_hubert Do you honestly believe that this is just because of "addictive properties" of AI?

@raymaccarthy @juergen_hubert It's AI.
https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/global-memory-shortage-crisis-market-analysis-and-the-potential-impact-on-the-smartphone-and-pc-markets-in-2026/

@juergen_hubert Claude Code is just one year old, I doubt anyone decided to write papers about it. But you hear from everywhere how they are no longer coding themselves, but using LLM's for coding.

So do I.

@juergen_hubert That said: Hardware prices will go down again as scientists figure out more efficient ways to implement AI, and hardware better suited to the tasks becomes widely available.

@juergen_hubert Now you are grasping for straws. This technology is phenomenal and very useful. Now, not every use is maybe a wise allocation of resources. The talk of a "bubble" might be about some of the companies, but the AI technology itself is clearly extremely useful even in its present, rather early stage.

@juergen_hubert I am not sure I understand what you are saying. Do you believe coding agents are a productivity leap, or do you not?

@kichae I see no contradiction to what I wrote. Coding agents are so far a massive productivity increase, not more, not less. But that's not a bubble. That's progress.

@juergen_hubert The developer isn't really replaced by the LLMs yet. The programmer absolutely is.

@juergen_hubert They don't bother, they just do the same tests you'd do with any human-written code. And if there's an issue, ask the LLM to fix it. Might take a few attempts, of course. Just like with any human programmer.

@juergen_hubert That is simply not what is happening. The LLMs are faster at writing AND debugging than any human could ever be. I suggest you try it with something like Opencode and an LLM of your choice, or with Claude Code for a simple start.

@juergen_hubert It's not incomprehensible to the developers, there's just another layer between the human and the machine code. A coding LLM is basically just the logical extension of the concept of a compiler. Most people have also never read machine code, and why would they, when compilers exist?

@juergen_hubert Do they need it, if all they do is ask the LLM interface to adjust, fix or rewrite it?

@juergen_hubert The bubble might not burst, though, because it's not a bubble. Coding with coding agents based on LLMs is just so much faster that there will be no going back.