@isaacfreeman

I don’t disagree with your desire to see Green MPs with significant ministerial portfolios the only thing we really ever disagreed about is my hope that the Greens have a larger proportion of representation in the next government.

It seems you no longer totally disagree with that either so I’m now somewhat confused about what we’re debating.

Thanks for a fun discussion that appears to have gone a full circle.

Here’s hoping for the best.

@Salty

@isaacfreeman @Salty

This still doesn't explain your wish for Greens to have a poor or average than expected turn out at the next election.

I still argue the more votes they get the more options they have.

@isaacfreeman

Well, going back to your original statement about wanting to see Greens with less than 30% of the share of the next coalition govt.

Firstly if Greens only get around 10% or less of the vote in the next election there will be no problem for Labour to decide as they will be in opposition along with the Greens.

Secondly if Greens has around 40% or more of the members of a propositional coalition govt then Labour has far less power to exclude them from ministerial positions inside cabinet.

Regardless, neither of our opinions are going to change the outcome of the 2026 election but hopefully we will be in a position in early 2027 to judge how Labour treats Greens & TPM as coalition partners.

@isaacfreeman

This is where and how I disagree with you.

Firstly the only reason Greens were left out of cabinet in the first Jacinda Ardern Labour led govt was Winston Peters refused to work with Labour if Greens were coalition partners. Labour really had no other choice but did as you say work with the Greens in a number of areas outside of cabinet. The 2020 election result delivered Labour the first majority single party government so Labour had no reason to form a coalition with the Greens.

Labour might be far more centrist than the Greens but they’re not stupid, they can read the room. If they try to ignore a large mandate from the voters to share more power with the Greens then that will be detrimental to Labour as a party.

And that’s why I am in favour of a large turnout for the Greens in the next election.

@isaacfreeman

Yeah, I'm not much of a hurry up and wait kinda person particularly when we have an economic and environmental existential crisis to deal with.

@isaacfreeman

I still don't understand your argument. If Greens have a larger proportionality in govt than 30% then they have more of a mandate to demand ministerial roles etc.

The New Zealand Green Party has never been in government as a coalition partner only under a confidence and supply agreement with the Labour-led government in 2017.

@isaacfreeman

I am not sure I follow your logic. Surely the higher the number of minor party members in a coalition government the more influence and control they have over government decisions.

I appreciate that this could lead to a more fractious coalition but as we’ve seen with the other lot, the main party has two choices either risk losing control by refusing to accommodate coalition partners or cooperating with them to create at times compromised outcomes that work for all.

@ArrestJK @libroraptor

I enjoyed listening to Marama Davidson's kōrero in the #NZPol debate on the Prime Minister's statement in the House yesterday.

She spoke of the parliamentary system being built on a system of conflict and competition rather than cooperation. It's really worth listening to.

Marama Davidson begins at 1:59:35

https://www.youtube.com/live/EGJSeuFbxVQ?si=q9kObCXnh8KnP6qY&t=7175

@libroraptor @ArrestJK

Curiously, recent polling shows a notable loss of support for the 2 main parties and that support shifting across the spectrum to the minor parties.

@ArrestJK

Without wanting to disagree as I understand the point you're making, the outcome will be what it will be and on a personal level I believe the best Greens & TPM can hope for is about a 40% representation in the next govt but you only need to look at the fear of the Greens coming from National, Actlas and US First to understand how desperately Aotearoa NZ needs strong Greens representation in the next govt.

@libroraptor

@ArrestJK

I was neither agreeing or disagreeing with you simply pointing out that new and inexperienced MPs is and always has been a part of the parliamentary cycle.

The reality is, unless you're an inexperienced politician and former deodorant salesman who has been selected to unashamedly serve the interests of the 10% then you're never going to be put in a position beyond the back bench unless of course you bring a specific set of skills that are useful such as New Zealand Council of Trade Unions economist and NZ Labour candidate Craig Renney.

On a personal level I would love to have the power to influence outcomes but it's always good to get people to think of possibilities and consider potential outcomes.

@ArrestJK Yes, that would mean a lot of new Green MPs however I imagine that wouldn't be so different from the influx of inexperienced MPs that came in via ACT and US First last election, the main difference would be they are far less likely to be far right extremists or cookers.

BTW, without wanting to influence your choice, should Greens and Te Pāti Māori make up over 50% of the next coalition NZ govt then the most likely next NZ Prime Minister would be Chlöe Swarbrick.

Time for another #NZPol poll

If a 2026 Labour coalition government is elected later this year what proportion of that coalition would you like to be represented by Greens and Te Pāti Māori?

Based on current average polling and assuming they would need a collective minimum of 50.5% to form a government the Greens and TPM would make up around 15% of that vote meaning they would represent approximately 30% in a Labour led coalition govt.