The chatter in my TL suggests that we are inching closer to the point where “Trump killed Epstein” becomes a thinkable thought in the mainstream, scrawled on toilet stalls and dumpsters across the USA as a routine rallying cry.
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*ahem*
didn't he?
what are the odds that Jean-Luc Brunel ―Epstein’s French counterpart, business partner and confederate― also ends up also dead in prison?
how convenient for the oligarchy that the two guys who were coordinating their crimes in Europe and the Américas end up dead in prison while awaiting prosecution ―which would have forced evidence discovery to be presented to and recorded by the courts.
yeah, no. those were not coincidental suicides.
@blogdiva @inthehands at this point this feels like The Pope shitting in the woods territory.
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Who knows whether somebody actually •did• have Epstein murdered, Trump or otherwise. It’s likely we’ll never have either a smoking gun or a definitive rebuttal.
And that may not matter — I’m talking about •vibes•, about the Overton Window of conspiracy theories, about just how many people are so sick Epstein and Trump and all these people that they don’t need any more evidence to want all their legacies flushed down history’s toilet.
2/
@inthehands Honestly the whole thing is pretty simple. He did kill himself. There were cameras everywhere and everything. Some ninja sneaking in and assassinating him without guards or cameras spotting them is too much of a reach.
But here's the thing: the warden was a Trump loyalist and had Epstein taken off the suicide watchlist then left alone even though he was *clearly* still a suicide risk.
So he wasn't directly killed, but it kind of amounts to the same thing...
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Facts •do• matter. The thing is, vibes matter too.
This thread was prompted by this story (ht @tomcapuder and @StillIRise1963), which is •so• tantalizing and so aligned with what I •want• to be true that all my skepticism alarm bells are going off:
https://www.rawstory.com/jeffrey-epstein-2675132346/
If if we’re holding a trial or writing a history, well…I’ll wait for the dust to settle, expecting this not to hold up. Facts matter. But — no, not “but”…AND…
5/
…if we’re watching for a mass turn in popular sentiment against a would-be authoritarian, then it’s the vibes that matter. The guts lead and the facts follow later, if at all.
It’s significant that a mainstream (if salacious) news outlet is running this story at all. It’s significant that it’s making the rounds in my fairly fact-focused TL. I’m interested in who’s repeating this, who’s joking about it, whether it becomes an acceptable SNL gag, whether centrist pundits feel the need to start refuting it.
Vibes.
6/
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Facts •do• matter. The thing is, vibes matter too.
This thread was prompted by this story (ht @tomcapuder and @StillIRise1963), which is •so• tantalizing and so aligned with what I •want• to be true that all my skepticism alarm bells are going off:
https://www.rawstory.com/jeffrey-epstein-2675132346/
If if we’re holding a trial or writing a history, well…I’ll wait for the dust to settle, expecting this not to hold up. Facts matter. But — no, not “but”…AND…
5/
It's real. I found it on DOJ's Epstein file site.
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%208/EFTA00013180.pdf
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For a vibes-based cult of personality, it’s the kiss of death for a thought like “Trump killed Epstein” to become a mainstream refrain.
It’s an exit ramp from Trumpism.
4/
a murder is what gets trump? after everything else? dunno, wish it were true but won't be holding my breath.
killing Ms Idaho - that'd have more impact than epstein.
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…if we’re watching for a mass turn in popular sentiment against a would-be authoritarian, then it’s the vibes that matter. The guts lead and the facts follow later, if at all.
It’s significant that a mainstream (if salacious) news outlet is running this story at all. It’s significant that it’s making the rounds in my fairly fact-focused TL. I’m interested in who’s repeating this, who’s joking about it, whether it becomes an acceptable SNL gag, whether centrist pundits feel the need to start refuting it.
Vibes.
6/
Facts didn’t build this collective delusion, and facts won’t puncture it.
So yeah, I’m trying to stay diligent about facts where facts matter. I’m trying to stay clear in my own head about what we •know• with high confidence as distinct from what merely seems •likely•.
And I’m also studying — with careful attention, as a serious matter — what popular imagination is doing to the “100% vibes” foundation of Trumpism. Popular imagination. Not the facts. The vibes.
/end
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a murder is what gets trump? after everything else? dunno, wish it were true but won't be holding my breath.
killing Ms Idaho - that'd have more impact than epstein.
@maya_b @inthehands Trump literally joked that he could murder someone and his base wouldn't care. I think that was actually true. It's less "a murder" and more one very specific murder that ties into all the conspiracy theory craziness they have built up, especially since they seem to have been in denial all this time that Trump could have had anything to do with Epstein but apparently supposedly Democrats were in on it all. (I think back then they claimed Hillary sent the ninja assassins.)
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@inthehands gosh, where *did* the buck stop when he died in federal custody? It's basically unknowable!
@celeduc
The thing is, is probably •is• literally unknowable, in “grassy knoll” territory or worse — and, per the thread, if it shifts him in the collective imagination, knowability won’t matter a bit. -
@maya_b @inthehands Trump literally joked that he could murder someone and his base wouldn't care. I think that was actually true. It's less "a murder" and more one very specific murder that ties into all the conspiracy theory craziness they have built up, especially since they seem to have been in denial all this time that Trump could have had anything to do with Epstein but apparently supposedly Democrats were in on it all. (I think back then they claimed Hillary sent the ninja assassins.)
quite. why I think Ms Idaho might have more impact - it's one of *them* not some relatively abstract dead guy (in their world)
which also means nobody will really care anyway.
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@inthehands Totalitarian leaders never derive their power from facts. According to Hannah Arendt, the facts are a problem to be solved with propaganda, conspiracy theories, and terror. What's true is whatever the leader says is true, and may change from day to day. Fortunately for leader, his followers profess an odd mix of gullibility and cynicism, making it possible for him to make contradictory statements and not lose his power.
https://hac.bard.edu/amor-mundi/-gullibility-and-cynicism-2022-01-09
@cratermoon
That’s exactly right. And per downthread, that power unravels not because of facts or because of one single extra-shocking revelation, but because of a shift in popular imagination of the leader. -
*ahem*
didn't he?
what are the odds that Jean-Luc Brunel ―Epstein’s French counterpart, business partner and confederate― also ends up also dead in prison?
how convenient for the oligarchy that the two guys who were coordinating their crimes in Europe and the Américas end up dead in prison while awaiting prosecution ―which would have forced evidence discovery to be presented to and recorded by the courts.
yeah, no. those were not coincidental suicides.
@blogdiva
"Bro, are you committing suicide next week? Cool me too."
Said rich crimers and blackmailers, never
@inthehands -
@inthehands understanding that things can be true without being factual
@SirJohnOldcastle
and (per the thread) that belief matters more than truth in propping up authoritarians. Framing is everything. -
*ahem*
didn't he?
what are the odds that Jean-Luc Brunel ―Epstein’s French counterpart, business partner and confederate― also ends up also dead in prison?
how convenient for the oligarchy that the two guys who were coordinating their crimes in Europe and the Américas end up dead in prison while awaiting prosecution ―which would have forced evidence discovery to be presented to and recorded by the courts.
yeah, no. those were not coincidental suicides.
@blogdiva
I mean, it all sure smells fishier than a bucket of week-old chum. -
quite. why I think Ms Idaho might have more impact - it's one of *them* not some relatively abstract dead guy (in their world)
which also means nobody will really care anyway.
@maya_b @nazokiyoubinbou
I don’t think either one of these revelations alone would sink him — and that’s all kind of beside the point. What I’m saying in the thread is I’m sensing a new a shift in vibes here, maybe, and •that• is what can bring him down. If “Trump’s a pedo” and “Trump killed Epstein” breaks widely enough into general conversation, that’s…important. -
quite. why I think Ms Idaho might have more impact - it's one of *them* not some relatively abstract dead guy (in their world)
which also means nobody will really care anyway.
@maya_b @nazokiyoubinbou @inthehands As Paul said, it’s all about the vibes. I’d prefer Trump be taken down over something more meaningful to our democracy, like his ties to Russia, voter suppression, etc.—for the fascism to be clearly revealed—but those don’t get the vibes. Still, for him to be wrapped up in the very things that drove the QAnon conspiracies, maybe that’s not such a bad take-down either.
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@maya_b @nazokiyoubinbou @inthehands As Paul said, it’s all about the vibes. I’d prefer Trump be taken down over something more meaningful to our democracy, like his ties to Russia, voter suppression, etc.—for the fascism to be clearly revealed—but those don’t get the vibes. Still, for him to be wrapped up in the very things that drove the QAnon conspiracies, maybe that’s not such a bad take-down either.
@ramsey @maya_b @inthehands Oh every accusation from the right is a confession. That Trump was in on all that from the start was obvious even back then. The tricky part is just getting his base to see such a thing.
Like you say, the "vibe" is the issue. He somehow repeated the right words over and over and had them thinking only Democrats could be involved. Something about the break between then and now shifted stuff I guess? Or maybe not. I'll believe it when I see the base actually turn
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@ramsey @maya_b @inthehands Oh every accusation from the right is a confession. That Trump was in on all that from the start was obvious even back then. The tricky part is just getting his base to see such a thing.
Like you say, the "vibe" is the issue. He somehow repeated the right words over and over and had them thinking only Democrats could be involved. Something about the break between then and now shifted stuff I guess? Or maybe not. I'll believe it when I see the base actually turn
@nazokiyoubinbou @maya_b @inthehands My parents live in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district. Given that she’s making the rounds, talking about how Trump has lied and is a fraud, I wonder how the vibes are among those who put her into office.
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@nazokiyoubinbou @maya_b @inthehands My parents live in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district. Given that she’s making the rounds, talking about how Trump has lied and is a fraud, I wonder how the vibes are among those who put her into office.
@ramsey @maya_b @inthehands I would really like to see more of an inside view. I can say some of the diehard loyalists (like my frigging parents — they aren't openly MAGA but might as well be called closet MAGA) don't seem to have processed this yet.
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@ramsey @maya_b @inthehands I would really like to see more of an inside view. I can say some of the diehard loyalists (like my frigging parents — they aren't openly MAGA but might as well be called closet MAGA) don't seem to have processed this yet.
@nazokiyoubinbou @ramsey @maya_b
It will first take the form of people just getting a little quieter about Trump. Then they won’t really be talking about him. Then, after an interval, obviously he killed Epstein and they never really liked him.
Gratifying mea culpas will be few and far between.
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@celeduc
The thing is, is probably •is• literally unknowable, in “grassy knoll” territory or worse — and, per the thread, if it shifts him in the collective imagination, knowability won’t matter a bit.FWIW it isn't unknowable: bureaucracy is the art of covering up violence as statecraft.
the problem is, USA doesn’t have a true 4th estate.
union busting, pension buyouts & hedge-funded newspapers got rid of 3 generations of journalists who understood statecraft; who were trained to look at bureaucracy as a coverup.
not a coincidence Reaganism meant the oligarchy spent billions funding false neutrality curriculums in science, tech & journalism.
