@isotopp
It's poor SF conditioned by a focus on energy.
Unless People are txing at us from less than maybe 5 ly, only spectroscopic analysis of planet transiting a star is likely to reveal much. A more advanced society might use less energy!

@raymaccarthy @isotopp Kardashev's work was published in 1964, a time when our understanding of technological development *was* energy bounded rather than infomation bounded. A huge amount changed after roughly 1973-74!

@cstross @raymaccarthy I know but the press amplifies Space Karen's nonsense with zero fact checking

@isotopp soundtrack: elvis costello - pump it up

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

@isotopp What's our score on the Kessler Scale and will we reach Type 1 soon? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

Nikolai Kardashev was a Soviet radio astronomer and astrophysicist who wanted to know how one could even detect extraterrestrial civilizations at all, the “SETI problem”.

He concluded: by energy consumption. The Kardashev scale is therefore not an ISO standard (ISO = Interstellar Standards Organization?), but a thinking tool devised by one person.

The scale says:

• Type 1: Uses all the energy available to its planet. For example, an albedo-zero world completely covered in solar cells.
• Type 2: Uses all the energy available to its star system. Not a million satellites in orbit, but a Dyson sphere that captures all the light and radiation of a star.
• Type 3: Uses the energy of all stars in a galaxy.

The idea of launching data centers into space, more precisely into LEO, must therefore be evaluated on a different scale:

The Kardashian scale

• A Type 1 civilization on the Kardashian scale has a public discourse that is no longer driven by facts, but by emotion and attention.
• A Type 2 civilization no longer has this discourse under control, and counterfactual emotional discourse begins to control politics, research, and the economy, where unscientific and outright stupid narratives now take over steering.
• A Type 3 civilization has complete epistemic decoupling: visibility has fully replaced truth, reach beats evidence, and consistency is irrelevant as long as the narrative is exciting. Physical limits are dismissed as “bad vibes”, and criticism is read as a moral flaw and subversion.

So we are not measuring energy, but loss of contact with reality. Many tech visions of recent years (everything from and including Bitcoin onward) map directly onto this scale.

We are now already a Kardashian Type 2 civilization.

@isotopp

In 1973 Carl Sagan estimated that humanity is currently around Type 0.7. He derived the following formula by interpolation:

K = (log10[P] - 6) / 10

P = antilog10[(K * 10) + 6]

where:

K: Kardashev Rating
P: Power harnessed by civilization (watts)
log10[x] : Common logarithm of x
antilog10[x] : Common antilogarithm of x

@isotopp

Kardashev Scale
-0.48 A civilization that is able to harness the power of one manual laborer. ~17W
0 harness the power of 60,000 manual laborers. ~10^6W
1 harness all of the power available on a single planet. ~10^16
2 harness all of the power available from a single star. ~10^26
3 harness all of the power available from a single galaxy. ~10^36
4 harness all of the power available in the entire universe. ~10^46