NATO is over now.
-
@CptSuperlative @madengineering I would say that NATO as we know it is over, but the suggested "replacement alliance" is NATO.
Bluntly, POTUS Trump has absolutely zero interest in USA membership in NATO, nor any subset of NATO. Nor any replacement for a subset of NATO.
So it's not like there is some internal power struggle where Trump is trying to carve off some "coalition of the willing" or anything like that. No, he simply does not understand the concept of an alliance at all.
This is
@CptSuperlative @madengineering quintessentially different from the internal divisions caused by Bush and his demand that NATO countries participate in invading Iraq. That was an honest to goodness internal power struggle.
Bush wanted subservient partners. Trump doesn't even understand the concept of having partners.
I think NATO has already averted the true existential crisis to NATO, by standing up to this Greenland thing. In response, Trump hasn't gone, "You're either with us or against us"
-
@CptSuperlative @madengineering quintessentially different from the internal divisions caused by Bush and his demand that NATO countries participate in invading Iraq. That was an honest to goodness internal power struggle.
Bush wanted subservient partners. Trump doesn't even understand the concept of having partners.
I think NATO has already averted the true existential crisis to NATO, by standing up to this Greenland thing. In response, Trump hasn't gone, "You're either with us or against us"
@CptSuperlative @madengineering So this leaves NATO in a position it has already been ... not 100% united, but nevertheless mostly united - with no serious alternative bloc within it.
-
@CptSuperlative America's empire is fading. It shouldn't collapse into a third world cesspit (though it is perfectly capable of such a fall), but it will indeed take a generation or three to lick its wounds, recover its coherence and stability, and find a new identity to be proud of, post recognising the lie of "American exceptionalism". Australia's best interests may in the long term be served by aligning with China. But there are others, like Canada, that Europe can find commonality with.
@tbn97 @CptSuperlative I'm afraid that its empire is very much not, but entering a new era of overt 19th century extractive imperialism - Venezuela being compelled to sell raw resources to the USA and to buy US goods with the money is straight out of the Empress of India's book.
That might not last forever, but it's not immediately clear who or what is going to make them stop.
-
@CptSuperlative it is time we have a European army. We waste so much on separate armies. Together we would have a significant military presence and military industry.
@jasperamorgan @CptSuperlative
But not with Hungary. Let them join the Russian army.
-
NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
@CptSuperlative I would disagree - it's single biggest member (by population) seems to want to declare war on the rest, but the 750 Million population of European member nations, plus Canada, outnumbers the US's 330 million.
NATO already exists, and has been working around US policies for years - it doesn't need replacing, although I would suggest inviting Mexico to join, as well as Ukraine. -
NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
My fellow Americans keep coming up with new ways to disappoint me.
-
NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
@CptSuperlative Completely agree. I've been wanting the old EDO restarted for several years (I think it might be ten, oddly enough).
-
@tbn97 @CptSuperlative I'm afraid that its empire is very much not, but entering a new era of overt 19th century extractive imperialism - Venezuela being compelled to sell raw resources to the USA and to buy US goods with the money is straight out of the Empress of India's book.
That might not last forever, but it's not immediately clear who or what is going to make them stop.
@denisbloodnok @CptSuperlative these are the actions a of a fading empire. Internal pressures will make them stop, eventually. The death throes are usually ugly. And usually look a lot like this. This will stop within a couple of decades, when the implosion is complete (yes, they can do a lot of damage on the way down).
-
@denisbloodnok @CptSuperlative these are the actions a of a fading empire. Internal pressures will make them stop, eventually. The death throes are usually ugly. And usually look a lot like this. This will stop within a couple of decades, when the implosion is complete (yes, they can do a lot of damage on the way down).
@tbn97 @CptSuperlative I hope you are right but I fear you are not, and I'm not sure we can rely very much on precedent; there has been no previous nuclear-armed empire [1], nor one with such overwhelming military superiority (although I suppose one might argue the Royal Navy post-Napoleon came close).
[1] let me add "behaving like this" just in case the stub end of the British Empire overlaps with becoming nuclear-armed, although I'd argue it does not.
-
@CptSuperlative Completely agree. I've been wanting the old EDO restarted for several years (I think it might be ten, oddly enough).
I don’t know what happens with all of the US bases in Europe.
I’m frustrated and disgusted by my country.
-
Yep. Saw that before. Was not surprised at all.
-
I don’t know what happens with all of the US bases in Europe.
I’m frustrated and disgusted by my country.
@CptSuperlative
IIRC the ones in Britain are up for renewal in 2037 or so, which would need Parliamentary approval. No idea about the others. For all I know there's a clause in the German constitution saying they can't refuse American basing, or something equally stupid (I am guessing it was written under US tacit supervision). The French left NATO then rejoined, so I'm going to guess that basing rights there are fragile. -
@CptSuperlative or the USA could be kicked out, and the other countries including Canada stay in.
Maybe. But the US has been so central to the structure of NATO from the beginning (which has been controversial) that it’s a little difficult to imagine the disentangling.
-
@CptSuperlative
IIRC the ones in Britain are up for renewal in 2037 or so, which would need Parliamentary approval. No idea about the others. For all I know there's a clause in the German constitution saying they can't refuse American basing, or something equally stupid (I am guessing it was written under US tacit supervision). The French left NATO then rejoined, so I'm going to guess that basing rights there are fragile.@CptSuperlative
I do understand your disgust and frustration. I felt and still feel the same about Brexit, which has the same sort of population-conned-by-great-power-covert-backing feel to it and is a gigantic shot in the foot. -
@CptSuperlative Ukraine is a lost cause. We can't guarantee its safety even with US involvement. Better to seek neutral status for whatever rump state is left after a peace deal and do our best to limit Russian political/economic hegemony over it. And while we're at it we should be wary of military alliances with Baltic states discriminating against their Russian speaking citizens. We need an offramp from hatred.
This is a direction I don’t agree with but one of the perks of a European-only defense alliance is that Americans would have no voice in the matter.
-
I just cannot see how any of our “allies” can trust us now even in such an eventuality.
-
NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
-
Maybe. But the US has been so central to the structure of NATO from the beginning (which has been controversial) that it’s a little difficult to imagine the disentangling.
@CptSuperlative OTOH, this is probably the best time to put in the work for that.
-
Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
@OneInterestingFact @CptSuperlative @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
You could build something around France. They have an independent nuclear deterrent and I believe their arms industry isn't integrated with US. The most challenging part would be an integrated military command structure. The EU has the CSDP which could be expanded fairly quickly.
-
Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
@OneInterestingFact
Disagree.
- The USA has insisted that its generals run NATO.
- Some US arms may do. That capability is recent, with the possible exception of the UK nuclear deterrent. *Iran* is still flying F-4s and F-14s, IIRC.
- Dassault, SAAB, MBB... long list. The USA has monetised NATO to sell weapons, but that's not the same.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
