NATO is over now.
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NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
@CptSuperlative Completely agree. I've been wanting the old EDO restarted for several years (I think it might be ten, oddly enough).
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@tbn97 @CptSuperlative I'm afraid that its empire is very much not, but entering a new era of overt 19th century extractive imperialism - Venezuela being compelled to sell raw resources to the USA and to buy US goods with the money is straight out of the Empress of India's book.
That might not last forever, but it's not immediately clear who or what is going to make them stop.
@denisbloodnok @CptSuperlative these are the actions a of a fading empire. Internal pressures will make them stop, eventually. The death throes are usually ugly. And usually look a lot like this. This will stop within a couple of decades, when the implosion is complete (yes, they can do a lot of damage on the way down).
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@denisbloodnok @CptSuperlative these are the actions a of a fading empire. Internal pressures will make them stop, eventually. The death throes are usually ugly. And usually look a lot like this. This will stop within a couple of decades, when the implosion is complete (yes, they can do a lot of damage on the way down).
@tbn97 @CptSuperlative I hope you are right but I fear you are not, and I'm not sure we can rely very much on precedent; there has been no previous nuclear-armed empire [1], nor one with such overwhelming military superiority (although I suppose one might argue the Royal Navy post-Napoleon came close).
[1] let me add "behaving like this" just in case the stub end of the British Empire overlaps with becoming nuclear-armed, although I'd argue it does not.
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@CptSuperlative Completely agree. I've been wanting the old EDO restarted for several years (I think it might be ten, oddly enough).
I don’t know what happens with all of the US bases in Europe.
I’m frustrated and disgusted by my country.
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Yep. Saw that before. Was not surprised at all.
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I don’t know what happens with all of the US bases in Europe.
I’m frustrated and disgusted by my country.
@CptSuperlative
IIRC the ones in Britain are up for renewal in 2037 or so, which would need Parliamentary approval. No idea about the others. For all I know there's a clause in the German constitution saying they can't refuse American basing, or something equally stupid (I am guessing it was written under US tacit supervision). The French left NATO then rejoined, so I'm going to guess that basing rights there are fragile. -
@CptSuperlative or the USA could be kicked out, and the other countries including Canada stay in.
Maybe. But the US has been so central to the structure of NATO from the beginning (which has been controversial) that it’s a little difficult to imagine the disentangling.
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@CptSuperlative
IIRC the ones in Britain are up for renewal in 2037 or so, which would need Parliamentary approval. No idea about the others. For all I know there's a clause in the German constitution saying they can't refuse American basing, or something equally stupid (I am guessing it was written under US tacit supervision). The French left NATO then rejoined, so I'm going to guess that basing rights there are fragile.@CptSuperlative
I do understand your disgust and frustration. I felt and still feel the same about Brexit, which has the same sort of population-conned-by-great-power-covert-backing feel to it and is a gigantic shot in the foot. -
@CptSuperlative Ukraine is a lost cause. We can't guarantee its safety even with US involvement. Better to seek neutral status for whatever rump state is left after a peace deal and do our best to limit Russian political/economic hegemony over it. And while we're at it we should be wary of military alliances with Baltic states discriminating against their Russian speaking citizens. We need an offramp from hatred.
This is a direction I don’t agree with but one of the perks of a European-only defense alliance is that Americans would have no voice in the matter.
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I just cannot see how any of our “allies” can trust us now even in such an eventuality.
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NATO is over now.
I don’t know if everyone gets that yet but it’s true.
Europe should found a replacement alliance (it should include Ukraine).
The UK should join it but if it won’t there should at least be Commonwealth replacement military alliance. Unless there is one that I’m not aware of.
The US will not and should not be trusted. Even if a miracle happened and we cleaned this all up over the next 10 years or so - the damage is done.
At best, it would take the US 2- 3 generations to get passed the cluster fuck American voters fell for again.
I’m not counting on any “bests” from stupid fucking Americans.
And I am one.
Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
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Maybe. But the US has been so central to the structure of NATO from the beginning (which has been controversial) that it’s a little difficult to imagine the disentangling.
@CptSuperlative OTOH, this is probably the best time to put in the work for that.
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Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
@OneInterestingFact @CptSuperlative @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
You could build something around France. They have an independent nuclear deterrent and I believe their arms industry isn't integrated with US. The most challenging part would be an integrated military command structure. The EU has the CSDP which could be expanded fairly quickly.
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Back to the start: NATO has _been_ the US for 80 years. Other members [OM] did the US's bidding in return for protection [irfp]. OM bought US arms irfp.
US arms come with a kill switch - only for use when the US allows.
Of course OM can collaborate to start their own arms industries excluding US but that takes time and in the meantime?@jasperamorgan @lionelb @SoftwareTheron @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @thomas_klopf @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97
@OneInterestingFact
Disagree.
- The USA has insisted that its generals run NATO.
- Some US arms may do. That capability is recent, with the possible exception of the UK nuclear deterrent. *Iran* is still flying F-4s and F-14s, IIRC.
- Dassault, SAAB, MBB... long list. The USA has monetised NATO to sell weapons, but that's not the same.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
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@OneInterestingFact
Disagree.
- The USA has insisted that its generals run NATO.
- Some US arms may do. That capability is recent, with the possible exception of the UK nuclear deterrent. *Iran* is still flying F-4s and F-14s, IIRC.
- Dassault, SAAB, MBB... long list. The USA has monetised NATO to sell weapons, but that's not the same.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
@SoftwareTheron @CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
There's a number of arms manufacturers that aren't directly owned by US companies but how many can operate without US components?
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@CptSuperlative
I do understand your disgust and frustration. I felt and still feel the same about Brexit, which has the same sort of population-conned-by-great-power-covert-backing feel to it and is a gigantic shot in the foot.@CptSuperlative
BTW, my strong suspicion is that Brexit was aimed at the UK specifically to remove a nuclear-weapons-capable state from the EU. -
@SoftwareTheron @CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
There's a number of arms manufacturers that aren't directly owned by US companies but how many can operate without US components?
@OneInterestingFact
The term you're looking for is "chinese copy". (Yeah I know, very 1960s "Asiatic horde", but "unlicensed" doesn't evoke the historical parallels.)
One of the interesting(!) things which is probably going to develop from this is the collapse of the international patent system. Fun times.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
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@OneInterestingFact
The term you're looking for is "chinese copy". (Yeah I know, very 1960s "Asiatic horde", but "unlicensed" doesn't evoke the historical parallels.)
One of the interesting(!) things which is probably going to develop from this is the collapse of the international patent system. Fun times.@CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
@SoftwareTheron @CptSuperlative @lionelb @mancavgeek @lp0_on_fire @caoilte @oblomov @Beeker @normjess @musing_sys @tbn97 @jasperamorgan
I'm not sure I was.
Yes, the whole of the post WW2 rules based order is under threat.
In time those companies can find alternatives. We still have to deal with the *meantime* and from where I sit on Airstrip One there's little evidence that "our" political leaders have begun to think about how to disengage.
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@CptSuperlative @madengineering I would say that NATO as we know it is over, but the suggested "replacement alliance" is NATO.
Bluntly, POTUS Trump has absolutely zero interest in USA membership in NATO, nor any subset of NATO. Nor any replacement for a subset of NATO.
So it's not like there is some internal power struggle where Trump is trying to carve off some "coalition of the willing" or anything like that. No, he simply does not understand the concept of an alliance at all.
This is
I’m not sure I agree. Disagreement is one thing but having to prepare for invasion by an “ally” is a bit more extreme. Plus, Europe sans US is more of an independent institutional unit now than at any other time in history - one with the institutional memory and understanding of such an alliance.
But, I suppose, my main point is that I’m not trying to prescribe as much as I’m hoping to describe.
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I’m not sure I agree. Disagreement is one thing but having to prepare for invasion by an “ally” is a bit more extreme. Plus, Europe sans US is more of an independent institutional unit now than at any other time in history - one with the institutional memory and understanding of such an alliance.
But, I suppose, my main point is that I’m not trying to prescribe as much as I’m hoping to describe.
@CptSuperlative @madengineering As bad as this Greenland thing is, I'm still going to say the long standing ongoing Greece-Turkey tensions are worse for NATO unity. NATO has had to face down Turkish invasion plans, and that's a tension point that's not going to go away if there's some change in Turkish and/or Greek leadership.
My judgement assumes that this Greenland thing doesn't turn into WWIII, of course, and Europeans and Canadians make Trump chicken out.
