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  3. The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*.

The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*.

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  • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

    RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

    The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

    HP van BraamH This user is from outside of this forum
    HP van BraamH This user is from outside of this forum
    HP van Braam
    wrote last edited by
    #3

    @cstross Yeah, I recently came to a similar conclusion.

    I had replaced the fans in my 4 year old laptop and now it is ... just fine. Like I'm actually no longer even considering replacing it.

    Now I did buy a ridiculous laptop 4 years ago, but still.

    I wonder how many people could extend the life if their machines by just cleaning out the dust/replacing the fans.

    1 Reply Last reply
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    • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

      I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

      @blogdiva

      OblomovO This user is from outside of this forum
      OblomovO This user is from outside of this forum
      Oblomov
      wrote last edited by
      #4

      @cstross @blogdiva I have such large storage, where I keep all my audio and film and game installer backups because fuck streaming.

      Jack William BellJ 1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
        Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
        Charlie Stross
        wrote last edited by
        #5

        @Kierkegaanks It probably *will* kill the industry. A lot of smaller VARs will go out of business, bigger ones will see sales stagnate and be forced to put up prices b/c the data center futures bids are ramping prices, then the bubble will burst and we're in Great Depression 2.0. Not much will come through that intact.

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        • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

          I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

          @blogdiva

          Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
          Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
          Mark Dennehy
          wrote last edited by
          #6

          @cstross @blogdiva Tell me you have an oversized porn library without telling me you have an oversized porn library 😄

          Charlie StrossC 1 Reply Last reply
          0
          • Mark DennehyM Mark Dennehy

            @cstross @blogdiva Tell me you have an oversized porn library without telling me you have an oversized porn library 😄

            Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
            Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
            Charlie Stross
            wrote last edited by
            #7

            @markdennehy @blogdiva Actually most of that storage is redundant backup drives 🙂

            Mark DennehyM 1 Reply Last reply
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            • furicleF This user is from outside of this forum
              furicleF This user is from outside of this forum
              furicle
              wrote last edited by
              #8

              @graydon @cstross that's not fair - there was no attempt to kill aftermarket parts, the aftermarket is thriving.

              A poor comparison

              ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️F 1 Reply Last reply
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              • Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                Jack William Bell
                wrote last edited by
                #9

                @bithive @cstross

                I thought that went into /dev/null?

                1 Reply Last reply
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                • OblomovO Oblomov

                  @cstross @blogdiva I have such large storage, where I keep all my audio and film and game installer backups because fuck streaming.

                  Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                  Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                  Jack William Bell
                  wrote last edited by
                  #10

                  @oblomov @cstross @blogdiva

                  Same. Fuck streaming.

                  1 Reply Last reply
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                  • furicleF furicle

                    @graydon @cstross that's not fair - there was no attempt to kill aftermarket parts, the aftermarket is thriving.

                    A poor comparison

                    ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️F This user is from outside of this forum
                    ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️F This user is from outside of this forum
                    ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️
                    wrote last edited by
                    #11

                    @furicle @graydon @cstross indeed. My car is in the shop *right now* having 3rd party parking sensors added.

                    1 Reply Last reply
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                    • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                      @markdennehy @blogdiva Actually most of that storage is redundant backup drives 🙂

                      Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
                      Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
                      Mark Dennehy
                      wrote last edited by
                      #12

                      @cstross @blogdiva A redundantly backed up porn archive, you say? 😜

                      1 Reply Last reply
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                      • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                        RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

                        The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

                        mbpazM This user is from outside of this forum
                        mbpazM This user is from outside of this forum
                        mbpaz
                        wrote last edited by
                        #13

                        @cstross ...which only works for as long as nobody else can start producing alternative hardware.

                        And, come on: decades-old DDR3 is barely 5 times slower than modern DDR5. For most practical uses, cheap and somewhat slower than top-end memory would be perfectly fine.

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